Is There Still a Bull Market Ahead for Crypto in 2025?

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The question on every investor’s mind: Is the 2025 crypto bull market still alive? After a volatile start to the year, sentiment has shifted from euphoria to uncertainty. Despite multiple macro-level tailwinds, many seasoned observers are growing increasingly cautious. In this deep dive, we’ll analyze both the bearish and bullish cases, examine key on-chain metrics, and explore whether we’re entering a new phase of wealth creation—or wealth destruction.

We’ll also assess what signals to watch, how market cycles are evolving, and when the optimal time to re-enter might be.

The Four Stages of a Crypto Market Cycle

Before diving into data, it’s essential to understand how crypto markets typically evolve. Historically, each cycle follows four distinct phases:

1. Early Bull Phase (Jan–Oct 2023)

This stage emerged after the FTX collapse, as Bitcoin bottomed around $16,500 and climbed to $33,000. Activity was muted—trading volumes were low, social chatter quiet. Most investors remained skeptical. Yet, this quiet accumulation laid the foundation for the next surge.

2. Wealth Creation Phase (Nov 2023–Mar 2024)

Prices exploded. Bitcoin surged from $33,000 to $72,000; Ethereum rose from $1,500 to $3,600. Solana’s SOL jumped from $20 to $200. Memecoins like WIF and BONK delivered astronomical returns—75x and 26x respectively.
VC funding peaked. Projects like Jito’s airdrop created massive wealth within the Solana ecosystem, revaluing DeFi protocols such as Pyth and Raydium.
Yet, mainstream attention was still limited—your average friend hadn’t started asking about crypto yet.

3. Wealth Distribution Phase (Mar 2024–Jan 2025)

Enter the hype. “WAGMI” chants echoed across social media. Memecoin mania returned with full force, followed by the rise of AI agent narratives.
Celebrities and short-term speculators flooded in. News headlines like “Trump launches crypto reserve” or “Tesla buys BTC” fueled FOMO—even if unverified.
At this peak of attention, red flags were ignored. Everyone was making money, so no one wanted to point out flaws.

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4. Wealth Destruction Phase (Early 2025 Onward)

Now we may be here. The catalysts that drove the rally—Bitcoin ETF approvals, halving anticipation, political narratives—have largely played out.
Positive news no longer moves prices upward. Instead, rallies stall at resistance levels. Investor psychology shifts from greed to fear.

Key warning signs include:

Historically, blowups follow this phase—Terra/Luna led to 3AC, then Celsius, BlockFi, and finally FTX. This time? We haven’t seen a major collapse yet—but vulnerabilities exist.

Bearish Data Points: Are the Tops In?

Let’s examine the numbers behind the growing skepticism.

DEX Trading Volume Decline

Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume has dropped 80% from its peak following political meme coin hype. Active unique traders are down over 50%, signaling waning retail participation.

Source: The DeFi Report, Dune

Token Issuance Collapse

New token creation on Solana is down 72% from its high—yet over 20,000 tokens are still minted daily. This suggests a shift from innovation to pure speculation.

Source: The DeFi Report, Dune

BTC Long-Term Holder MVRV Ratio

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio for long-term Bitcoin holders peaked at 4.4 in late 2024—just 35% of the 2021 peak (12.5).
This indicates significantly lower profit margins compared to prior cycles.

Bitcoin’s realized price—the average cost basis of all circulating BTC—is now **$43,240**, up 1.7x from its 2021 peak ($24,530). With such high entry costs, further parabolic moves require unprecedented capital inflows.

Historical context:

Diminishing returns suggest we’ve likely seen the cycle top.

Structural Risks Lurking Beneath

Even without a blowup yet, several systemic risks remain:

Centralized Exchanges (CEXs)

Smaller-tier “B and C-grade” exchanges may harbor hidden leverage or insolvency risks—especially those with opaque reserves.

Stablecoins: The Ethena (USDe) Risk

Ethena’s USDe has nearly $5.5 billion in circulation. It maintains its peg through cash-and-carry trades (long spot BTC/ETH, short futures), a model vulnerable during volatility spikes.
Its reliance on centralized exchanges adds counterparty risk. Worse, MakerDAO has allocated part of its reserves to USDe—amplifying contagion risk across DeFi.

Protocol-Level Vulnerabilities

Aave still has $11+ billion in active loans backed by volatile crypto collateral. A sharp downturn could trigger cascading liquidations.
Meanwhile, frequent hacks and exploit attempts highlight growing attack surfaces.

Corporate BTC Holders: MicroStrategy Watch

While MicroStrategy has managed debt prudently (mostly long-term unsecured notes), a severe BTC drawdown could force Saylor to sell at the worst possible time.

The Bull Case: Is There Still Upside?

Despite bearish signals, optimists aren’t backing down. Let’s explore their arguments.

Global M2 Money Supply Growth

Since mid-January 2025, global M2 has risen 1.87%, driven by central banks pivoting from tightening to easing—especially in China and Europe.

Dollar weakness (down ~4% since Feb 28) boosts foreign currency valuations in USD terms, inflating global liquidity measures.

However:

👉 See how liquidity shifts impact cryptocurrency valuations in real time.

Business Cycle Indicators (ISM Data)

ISM manufacturing data showed early signs of recovery earlier in Q1 2025—capital spending increased, small business confidence improved.
But recent readings show softening: February PMI dropped to 50.3 from 50.9, and service sector demand cooled.

Some of the strength may have been front-loaded due to tariff fears—a temporary distortion.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserves: “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News”

Hopes that governments would adopt Bitcoin as strategic reserves faded after repeated price non-reactions to political announcements. This classic pattern confirms market maturity—and exhaustion of that narrative.

Is Cyclical Thinking Outdated?

Crypto is maturing. This cycle behaved differently:

Could we be in a consolidation phase, not a top? Possibly. Instead of a brutal bear market with 75–80% drawdowns, we might see a longer, shallower correction—9 to 12 months of sideways or gradual decline.

Final Outlook: Are We at the Top?

Our assessment:

  1. The typical bull cycle has likely concluded.
  2. All major catalysts have been priced in.
  3. Economic headwinds are mounting—government spending addiction requires a “withdrawal period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent warned.
  4. Short-term rallies (e.g., to $90K BTC) may occur but will face aggressive selling pressure.
  5. Crypto remains a leading indicator—the "canary in the coal mine" for broader financial stress.

Bearish consensus is forming—but that doesn’t automatically make it wrong.

What Would Make Us Bullish Again?

We remain open-minded. These developments could reignite sustained upside:

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Did the crypto bull market end in 2025?
A: Evidence suggests the primary bull phase has concluded. While price movements may continue, the core drivers have faded.

Q: Can Bitcoin go higher in 2025?
A: Short-term rallies are possible (e.g., $90K), but structural resistance makes sustained new highs unlikely without fresh macro catalysts.

Q: What are the biggest risks in crypto right now?
A: Hidden leverage in CeFi platforms, stablecoin fragility (e.g., USDe), protocol-level liquidations, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Q: Are memecoins still a good investment?
A: Extremely high risk. Solana’s DEX volume is now dominated by memecoins (61%), but participation is concentrated among whales—raising concerns about sustainability.

Q: When should I buy crypto again?
A: The optimal entry is typically late in the wealth destruction phase—after major players have capitulated and fear dominates sentiment.

Q: Is long-term crypto adoption still promising?
A: Absolutely. Despite cycles, blockchain-based finance continues evolving toward mainstream integration—making bear markets ideal for building and innovation.

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