Ondo (ONDO) is regaining momentum after a prolonged consolidation phase, signaling a potential reversal from its prior corrective structure. Following a deep retracement to key support levels, the asset is now exhibiting signs of a bullish impulse formation. Technical indicators across multiple timeframes suggest that ONDO could be setting up for a strong upward move, with a potential price target near $2.00 if key resistance levels are breached.
This analysis dives into the technical structure of ONDO using Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement levels across both 4-hour and 1-hour charts. We’ll explore how recent price action confirms a shift in market sentiment, identify critical support and resistance zones, and outline a clear path toward the next major price milestones.
ONDO Price Analysis: Emerging From Correction
On the 4-hour timeframe, Ondo completed a well-defined ABC corrective pattern following its peak at $2.13 on December 16. The correction unfolded in three distinct phases—Wave A, B, and C—with the final leg (Wave C) finding support at $0.91. This level aligns precisely with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend, historically a high-probability reversal zone in crypto markets.
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The fact that price stabilized at such a deep retracement level suggests strong demand accumulation. Moreover, the breakdown of the previous downtrend channel confirms a shift in momentum from bearish to neutral-to-bullish.
Since the low at $0.91, ONDO has rebounded over 55%, currently consolidating around $1.40. This range overlaps with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.36, a common area where corrective pullbacks find support before resuming trend direction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has also recovered from oversold territory (below 30), now hovering in neutral-to-positive territory. This reinforces the idea that selling pressure has eased and buyers are regaining control.
A breakout above $1.54—the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the initial decline—would serve as confirmation of a trend reversal and open the door for further upside. Until then, traders should watch this zone closely as it represents immediate resistance.
Elliott Wave Structure Points to Impulsive Upside
Zooming into the 1-hour chart reveals a developing five-wave Elliott impulse pattern, which typically follows corrective phases and drives strong directional moves.
Wave (i) of this new impulse appears to have concluded near $1.45, followed by a corrective Wave (ii) that retraced to $1.29—just above the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the impulsive leg. This shallow retracement is characteristic of strong bullish momentum, where corrections do not extend deeply into prior gains.
Currently, price is forming a base near $1.36, suggesting that Wave (ii) has completed and the market is preparing for Wave (iii)—often the longest and most powerful leg in an Elliott sequence.
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If the bullish structure remains intact, a breakout above $1.54 could trigger accelerated buying, pushing ONDO toward:
- $1.77 – aligned with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the prior high
- $2.10 – matching the previous all-time high
Wave (iii) projections based on standard Elliott Wave ratios (1.618x extension of Wave (i)) also support a move toward $1.75–$1.80. After this leg, a minor Wave (iv) pullback may occur before Wave (v) extends toward $2.00 or higher.
The RSI on the 1-hour chart is gradually climbing from neutral ground, indicating building bullish momentum without signs of overbought conditions—another positive signal for sustained upward movement.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Understanding pivotal price zones is essential for managing risk and identifying entry points:
- Immediate Resistance: $1.54 (0.382 Fib) – Breakout confirmation level
- Strong Resistance: $1.77–$1.80 – Target for Wave (iii) extension
- All-Time High Zone: $2.10 – Ultimate upside target if trend accelerates
- Key Support: $1.36 (0.5 Fib) – Critical short-term floor
- Critical Support: $1.17 (0.618 Fib) – Invalidation level for bullish structure
A sustained close below $1.17 would challenge the current Elliott Wave count and suggest the possibility of further downside or range extension.
However, as long as price holds above $1.36 and shows strength at $1.54, the path of least resistance remains upward.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is driving Ondo’s recent price recovery?
A: The rebound stems from technical factors—completion of a deep corrective phase at a major Fibonacci level ($0.91), combined with rising RSI momentum and channel breakouts indicating renewed buyer interest.
Q: Is ONDO likely to reach $2 in 2025?
A: Based on current Elliott Wave projections and Fibonacci extensions, reaching $2 is feasible if ONDO sustains momentum above $1.54 and completes its Wave (iii) and (v) phases successfully.
Q: What happens if ONDO fails to break $1.54?
A: Rejection at $1.54 could lead to sideways consolidation or a retest of support near $1.36. However, as long as $1.17 holds, the bullish outlook remains intact.
Q: How reliable is Elliott Wave analysis for cryptocurrencies?
A: While crypto markets are volatile, Elliott Wave Theory works best in trending conditions and provides valuable context when combined with Fibonacci tools and volume analysis.
Q: Where should traders place stop-loss orders?
A: Conservative traders may set stops below $1.36; aggressive ones below $1.17 to protect against structural breakdown while allowing room for normal volatility.
Q: Can ONDO surpass its previous high of $2.13?
A: Yes—once $1.77–$1.80 is achieved and Wave (iv) completes, Wave (v) could push prices beyond $2.13, especially if broader market conditions turn favorable.
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Final Outlook: Bullish Reversal in Motion
Ondo has navigated through a significant correction and appears to be entering a new phase of growth. The confluence of technical signals—completion of an ABC correction at a key Fib level, breakout from a bearish channel, RSI recovery, and formation of an early-stage Elliott impulse—strongly supports a bullish reversal scenario.
With short-term targets at $1.77 and a longer-term goal near $2.10, ONDO is positioning itself for potential outperformance in the mid-cap crypto space.
Traders should monitor the $1.54 resistance level closely; a confirmed breakout could spark rapid gains driven by algorithmic and institutional participation.
While risks remain—particularly if macro sentiment sours or on-chain metrics weaken—the current technical setup offers a compelling opportunity for those entering with proper risk management.
As always, align entries with confirmed breakouts and use Fibonacci retracements to scale into positions during minor pullbacks.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are subject to high market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.