The Ethereum (ETH) market has seen significant volatility in recent months, with several high-profile whales and institutional investors entering positions at what they believed were strategic entry points. However, as ETH prices fluctuate, many of these early movers are now sitting on substantial unrealized losses. According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, seven major addresses that recently accumulated ETH have collectively incurred $10.25 million in unrealized losses—a stark reminder of the risks involved in timing the market, even for seasoned players.
This article dives into the details of these whale and institutional buys, analyzes the broader macroeconomic context affecting crypto sentiment, and explores what this could mean for ETH’s price trajectory in the coming weeks.
Major Whales and Institutions Facing Unrealized ETH Losses
Despite Ethereum’s long-term potential, short-term price movements have not been kind to recent buyers. Below is a breakdown of the seven key addresses currently underwater on their ETH positions:
1. Trump WLFI – $75M Total Unrealized Loss
On March 6, the wallet associated with Trump WLFI purchased 4,468 ETH at an average price of $2,228.70**, resulting in a current unrealized loss of **$750,000 on that specific batch. More significantly, this address holds a total of 66,274.9 ETH, which collectively sits on an unrealized loss of $77.37 million—one of the largest among known political or celebrity-linked wallets.
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2. Address 0x655...1e0B8 – $1.31M Loss on stETH
Yesterday, this anonymous entity acquired 8,265 stETH (staked ETH) at an average price of $2,218**, now facing an unrealized loss of **$1.31 million. The purchase was executed directly on-chain, indicating confidence in staking rewards despite short-term price weakness.
3. redbase.eth – $895K Loss After 6,100 ETH Buy
The ENS name redbase.eth bought 6,100 ETH yesterday at ~$2,200 per ETH**, currently down **$895,000 on paper. This appears to be a fresh accumulation, suggesting a belief in near-term recovery.
4. Address 0x42a...C42f8 – $530K Loss After Six-Day Accumulation
Over the past six days, this whale has steadily accumulated 4,505 ETH at an average cost of $2,171**, now showing a paper loss of **$530,000. The gradual buy-in strategy reflects a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach common among institutional players.
5. Mirana Ventures – $1.39M Loss Since February
Known crypto fund Mirana Ventures established a position of 21,667 ETH on February 28 at $2,134 each**. With ETH trading below that level, the fund now faces a **$1.386 million unrealized loss. Historically active in DeFi and Layer-2 ecosystems, Mirana’s continued holding suggests long-term conviction.
6. Profitable ETH Trader Now Down $3.29M
A whale previously celebrated for netting $33.67 million** from low-buy/high-sell ETH trades entered a new position on February 15 by purchasing **10,000 ETH** at **$2,388. That batch is now underwater by $3.29 million, highlighting how past success doesn’t guarantee future performance.
7. WBTC Trader With $2.09M ETH Loss
Another seasoned trader—famous for earning $14.26 million** trading WBTC—has been building an ETH position since February, acquiring **5,600 ETH** at an average cost of **$2,432. This results in a current unrealized loss of $2.087 million, underscoring the aggressive entry points taken during perceived market bottoms.
Why Are So Many Whales Underwater?
Several factors contribute to the widespread unrealized losses:
- Overestimation of bullish momentum: Many whales bought expecting immediate rallies post-spot ETF approvals or network upgrades.
- Macroeconomic headwinds: Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data has delayed Fed rate cut expectations, pressuring risk assets like crypto.
- Short-term profit-taking: Retail and mid-tier traders often sell during dips, creating downward pressure even when fundamentals remain strong.
Broader Market Context: Crypto and Traditional Markets Align
While crypto struggles with sentiment, traditional financial markets are sending mixed signals:
- The U.S. dollar/yen (USD/JPY) pair fell 9% in the first half of 2025, marking one of its best performances in years, driven by shifting monetary policies.
- Strong U.S. June non-farm payroll (NFP) data showed robust job growth, reinforcing economic resilience despite tariff-related uncertainties.
- As a result, expectations for a July Fed rate cut have cooled, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.35%.
Equity markets responded positively:
- Dow Jones (+0.77%)
- S&P 500 (+0.83% to 6,279)
- Nasdaq (+1.02% to 20,601) — both S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs.
- The China Golden Dragon Index rebounded by 0.4%, indicating improved risk appetite.
These macro trends suggest that while capital remains in risk-on mode, it's favoring established equities over volatile digital assets—at least for now.
Bitcoin Reaches New Highs Amid Mixed Sentiment
Interestingly, while ETH whales face losses, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show strength:
- BTC briefly surged past $110,500** on July 4, reaching an intraday high of **$110,529.
- At time of writing, it trades slightly below $110,000 at **$109,483, still within striking distance of its all-time high of $120,000**.
- Despite some bearish sentiment after the breakout, analysts note that such consolidation phases often precede further upside.
This divergence between BTC strength and ETH weakness may reflect investor preference for Bitcoin as a "safe haven" within the crypto space during uncertain periods.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does "unrealized loss" mean in crypto investing?
A: An unrealized loss occurs when an investor holds an asset worth less than their purchase price. The loss only becomes real if they sell at that lower price.
Q: Why are whales still buying ETH if prices are falling?
A: Many institutional investors use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies and believe in Ethereum’s long-term utility in DeFi, NFTs, and smart contracts—even if short-term prices dip.
Q: Can ETH recover from these losses?
A: Yes. Historical data shows that Ethereum has recovered from deeper drawdowns before. Upcoming upgrades like scalability improvements and increased Layer-2 adoption could drive future price appreciation.
Q: How do macroeconomic factors affect crypto prices?
A: Rising bond yields and delayed rate cuts reduce liquidity in risk assets. Conversely, dovish monetary policy typically boosts crypto demand as investors seek higher returns.
Q: Is it a good time to buy ETH now?
A: That depends on your investment horizon. Short-term traders should monitor support levels near $2,100–$2,150. Long-term investors may view current prices as a favorable entry point given Ethereum’s ecosystem growth.
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Final Thoughts: Patience Rewarded in Volatile Markets
The fact that multiple sophisticated players are sitting on paper losses highlights the difficulty of perfectly timing the bottom—even with advanced analytics and deep pockets. However, history shows that patient holders of Ethereum have often been rewarded over multi-year cycles.
For retail investors, the takeaway is clear: avoid emotional reactions to short-term price swings. Instead, focus on fundamentals—Ethereum’s role as the backbone of decentralized applications remains unchallenged.
As macro conditions evolve and technical upgrades roll out, Ethereum may yet reclaim its momentum. Until then, both whales and everyday investors must weather the storm together.
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