In the world of cryptocurrency investing, two strategies frequently come up in discussions: dollar-cost averaging (DCA), often referred to as "regular investing" or "定投", and strategic selling, known colloquially as "定抛". These approaches aim to bring discipline to volatile markets. Recently, readers have raised thoughtful questions about how specific price levels—like $35,000 for Bitcoin and $2,500 for Ethereum—are determined for DCA entry points, whether such figures can be adjusted, and if similar logic applies when deciding when to sell.
Let’s explore these concepts with clarity, grounded in market history and evolving investment philosophy.
How Are DCA Price Levels Determined?
The suggestion of a $35,000 Bitcoin and $2,500 Ethereum DCA target wasn’t derived from a complex algorithm. Instead, it was a conservative estimate based on historical market cycles.
Before the most recent bull run, every major bear market saw crypto assets decline by more than 50% from their peak. With Bitcoin peaking just under $70,000 and Ethereum near $5,000, halving those values provided a rough but reasonable floor: $35,000 and $2,500 respectively.
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This method relies on a critical assumption: that future bear markets will follow past patterns—namely, a minimum 50% drawdown from highs. Without this assumption, the entire framework weakens.
But here's the problem: relying on historical patterns is still a form of prediction. While experience and observation offer valuable insights, they don’t guarantee future outcomes. Just because something happened repeatedly before doesn't mean it must happen again—especially in an asset class as young and adaptive as crypto.
Rethinking Strategy: From Prediction to Principle
Over time, my perspective has shifted. I’ve grown skeptical of strategies built on predicting bottom prices or exact reversal points. Why? Because no one can consistently predict market timing, not even seasoned analysts.
Past success using such methods may have been more luck than skill. And strategies based on non-replicable intuition aren’t sustainable long-term.
That’s why I’ve started considering an alternative: holding quality assets indefinitely, or at least significantly increasing the portion of my portfolio that I never plan to sell. This doesn’t mean ignoring volatility—it means focusing on fundamental value over price fluctuations.
After all, if you believe in the long-term potential of blockchain technology, decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and Web3 gaming—areas where Ethereum has shown exceptional strength—why set arbitrary exit points?
Can You Adjust Your DCA Price?
Absolutely.
There is no universal “correct” DCA price. Every investor has different risk tolerance, financial goals, and market outlooks. Some might feel comfortable starting their Bitcoin buys at $40,000; others may wait for $30,000 or lower. The key is to define your own parameters based on research and personal conviction, not herd sentiment.
For instance:
- If you believe macroeconomic trends (like monetary policy or institutional adoption) support higher crypto valuations long-term, you might adopt a more aggressive DCA schedule.
- Conversely, if you expect prolonged macro headwinds or regulatory pressure, you might choose more conservative entry points.
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What matters isn’t the exact number—it’s having a repeatable, emotion-free process that aligns with your investment philosophy.
Will Bitcoin Return to $35,000?
I can’t answer that—and frankly, no one can.
Markets are influenced by too many unpredictable variables: geopolitical events, regulatory shifts, technological breakthroughs, and investor psychology. Trying to forecast whether Bitcoin will revisit $35,000 is speculation, not strategy.
My personal stance?
If it does drop to that level, I’ll view it as a buying opportunity.
If it doesn’t, I won’t chase regret—I’ll stay focused on the bigger picture.
The Problem with Strategic Selling (定抛)
Now let’s turn to strategic selling—the idea of exiting positions after a certain drop from the peak, such as selling when Bitcoin falls 20% from its high.
This approach assumes that:
- A 20% decline signals the start of a prolonged bear market.
- Prices won’t recover quickly.
- You’ll get another chance to re-enter at much lower levels.
But history—especially from traditional markets—shows this assumption often fails.
Take the S&P 500: over the past decade, several 20% corrections were followed by rapid recoveries. Investors who sold at -20%, expecting a deeper crash (say -50%), often missed out entirely on the rebound.
Could This Happen in Crypto?
It already has.
Crypto markets are becoming increasingly mature. Liquidity is deeper, institutional participation is rising, and market reactions are faster. A 20% dip might trigger panic in some quarters—but for others, it’s a signal to accumulate.
So while a "sell-on-20%-drop" rule may feel disciplined, it risks exiting early from a temporary correction rather than a true structural downturn.
A Better Approach: Focus on Fundamentals
Instead of trying to time tops and bottoms, consider shifting focus to:
- Project fundamentals
- On-chain metrics
- Network usage
- Developer activity
- Long-term adoption trends
These indicators provide more durable insight than price-based rules alone.
Warren Buffett and Philip Fisher—two of history’s greatest investors—advocated for long-term ownership of exceptional businesses. Their philosophy wasn't about trading; it was about owning value.
While crypto isn't stocks, the principle applies: if you own assets with strong utility and growing ecosystems, constant trading may do more harm than good.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is dollar-cost averaging effective in crypto?
A: Yes—DCA reduces emotional decision-making and smooths out volatility exposure. It’s especially useful for new investors or those entering during uncertain times.
Q: Should I sell if Bitcoin drops 20% from its peak?
A: Not necessarily. A 20% drop doesn’t guarantee further losses. Evaluate broader market conditions and project health before making moves.
Q: Can I change my DCA price based on market changes?
A: Absolutely. Your DCA plan should evolve with new information and personal financial goals.
Q: What if crypto markets stop having deep bear markets?
A: That’s possible as adoption grows. In such a scenario, waiting for extreme discounts may mean missing opportunities altogether.
Q: Is holding forever a viable strategy?
A: For core holdings in proven projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum—yes. But diversification and periodic rebalancing remain important.
Q: Are historical drawdowns reliable predictors?
A: They offer context but aren’t guarantees. Past performance doesn’t ensure future results, especially in fast-evolving digital asset markets.
Final Thoughts
Investing in cryptocurrency doesn't require perfect foresight—but it does demand clarity of purpose.
Rather than guessing prices or setting rigid rules based on arbitrary percentages, focus on building a resilient portfolio aligned with your beliefs about the future of finance and technology.
Let go of the need to predict everything. Embrace patience. Prioritize understanding over timing.
Because in the end, the best strategy isn't always the most complex one—it's the one you can stick with through both bull runs and bear markets.
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