Bitcoin remains in a strong structural uptrend, despite recent short-term volatility. As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading around $105,400, while Ethereum holds at approximately $2,396. This analysis dives deep into the current market structure, wave patterns, and near-term outlook for BTC — offering clarity for traders navigating this critical phase of the cycle.
Market Structure and Trend Context
Since the pivotal low at $98,115, Bitcoin has entered what appears to be a consolidation phase — best interpreted through Elliott Wave Theory as an ABC correction. These types of corrections are common within larger bullish trends and often serve as mid-cycle breathing points before the next leg higher.
The ongoing pullback fits neatly into a textbook C-wave decline, which typically exhibits weakening momentum toward its conclusion. Historical precedents show that such waves often end near key Fibonacci support levels. In this case, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level stands as a strong candidate for a reversal, though a test of the 0.382 level cannot be ruled out.
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What’s crucial here is understanding that this dip is not a trend reversal, but rather a healthy adjustment within a broader bullish structure. The primary trend remains intact, and institutional inflows, spot ETF activity, and on-chain fundamentals continue to support higher prices over the medium to long term.
Wave Analysis: Is the C-Wave Ending?
Let’s break down the current wave structure:
- A-Wave: Sharp decline from the recent peak.
- B-Wave: Overlapping corrective bounce, showing indecision.
- C-Wave: Final impulsive leg down, now displaying signs of exhaustion.
Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and volume profiles suggest diminishing selling pressure. Additionally, whale accumulation patterns have re-emerged on-chain, with large entities increasing holdings during this dip — a classic sign of capitulation nearing its end.
From a timing perspective, C-waves typically last between 5–9 weeks in major cycles. Given the duration of this correction, we are likely approaching the final stages. A decisive close above key resistance could trigger short squeezes and accelerate momentum into the next upward phase.
Short-Term Outlook and Trading Strategy
For active traders, the current environment presents a strategic opportunity:
- Low-leverage participants should view this as a potential accumulation zone.
- High-leverage traders must maintain strict stop-loss discipline to manage risk during volatile swings.
Once the C-wave completes, expect a powerful impulse move upward, potentially surpassing previous highs. Targets in the $120,000–$130,000 range become realistic in the following weeks if bullish momentum resumes.
Key levels to watch:
- Support: $103,500 (0.5 Fib) – ideal bounce zone
- Breakout Level: $107,800 – confirmation of resumption
- Resistance: $112,000 – previous swing high
Technical confluence — including moving averages, order book depth, and derivatives data — supports a high-conviction reversal setup forming in this zone.
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Why Wave Theory Works in Crypto Markets
Elliott Wave Principle has proven particularly effective in analyzing Bitcoin due to its cyclical nature and sentiment-driven price action. Unlike traditional assets influenced heavily by earnings or macro policy, Bitcoin reacts more directly to market psychology and adoption cycles — making wave patterns highly visible.
Historical success stories include:
- A predicted top near $65,000 in April 2021
- A bottom call around $29,000 in July 2021
These calls were based on wave completion models and Fibonacci extensions — demonstrating that disciplined technical analysis can yield actionable insights even in highly volatile environments.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: Yes. Despite short-term corrections, all macro indicators — including on-chain activity, exchange outflows, and ETF inflows — point to an ongoing bull cycle. Corrections like this are normal and expected.
Q: How do I know when the C-wave is complete?
A: Look for three key signals: (1) bullish divergence on RSI, (2) strong candlestick reversal patterns near support, and (3) rising volume on up-moves. When these align, it's a strong sign the downtrend has exhausted.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin now or wait for lower prices?
A: For long-term holders, current levels offer a favorable entry. For traders, waiting for confirmation — such as a daily close above $107,800 — reduces risk while still capturing most of the upside.
Q: What triggers the next leg up in Bitcoin?
A: Likely catalysts include renewed institutional buying, U.S. monetary policy shifts (rate cuts), and increased adoption via Layer-2 solutions or tokenized assets.
Q: Can Bitcoin drop below $100,000?
A: While possible in extreme scenarios, sustained moves below $100K would require black swan events. Current on-chain metrics suggest strong support exists well above that level.
Q: How does sentiment affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Crypto markets are highly sentiment-sensitive. Fear often peaks at cycle lows, while greed dominates at tops. Tools like the Fear & Greed Index help gauge positioning extremes.
Final Thoughts: Prepare for the Next Move
Bitcoin’s path higher remains intact. The current correction aligns perfectly with a mature C-wave pattern — one that is likely nearing its end. Traders and investors should use this period not to panic, but to prepare.
Whether you're scaling into positions or refining your strategy, staying aligned with the dominant trend increases your odds of success. Emotional discipline, risk management, and technical clarity are essential tools in any market condition.
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As always, remember that no analysis guarantees future results. Market conditions evolve rapidly, and risk management should always be your top priority. Use stop-loss orders, avoid over-leveraging, and base decisions on verified data — not hype.
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