In the past 15 days, Ethereum (ETH) has struggled to close above the $2,350 resistance level. Despite this hesitation, some traders remain hopeful that the February 6 price rebound could signal a more meaningful shift in market sentiment. Market participants are closely watching external factors—such as Solana’s recent network outage and significant ETH outflows from exchanges—to determine whether Ethereum can break higher and reclaim the $2,650 level last seen on January 12.
Ethereum Maintains Dominance in DApp Deposit Ecosystem
On February 6, Solana experienced a five-hour network disruption that halted block production, prompting major exchanges to temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals for SOL and Solana-based tokens. This incident highlighted ongoing reliability challenges faced by competing blockchains during periods of high demand—reinforcing Ethereum’s reputation for resilience and decentralization.
Amid recurring critiques about high gas fees and network congestion, Ethereum continues to dominate the decentralized application (DApp) landscape. According to DefiLlama, Ethereum holds a commanding 57.8% share of total value locked (TVL) across all DApp platforms, amounting to $34.8 billion. When including Layer 2 scaling solutions like Polygon, Optimism, and Arbitrum, Ethereum’s ecosystem-wide TVL dominance expands to 67.4%.
👉 Discover how leading blockchain networks compare in real-time DApp performance and user adoption.
While critics argue that average transaction costs on Ethereum—currently around $5.85—may deter casual users, data shows sustained engagement. In the past week alone, over 382,490 unique addresses interacted with Ethereum-based DApps, led by major protocols such as Uniswap, 0x Protocol, MetaMask Swap, OpenSea, and 1inch Network. Notably, when aggregating activity across Layer 2 networks, weekly active addresses surpass 2 million, according to DappRadar.
This persistent user engagement underscores Ethereum’s role not just as a smart contract platform, but as the foundational layer for decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and Web3 innovation.
Why Network Resilience Matters for Long-Term Confidence
The Solana outage serves as a cautionary tale: even high-performance blockchains can face operational risks under stress. In contrast, Ethereum’s consistent uptime—even during peak congestion—builds trust among institutional and retail users alike. This reliability is a key reason why developers and capital continue to flow into its ecosystem.
Exchange Outflows and Staking Trends Signal Bullish Pressure
Beyond DApp metrics, on-chain activity provides crucial insights into investor behavior. While price movements often reflect short-term speculation, long-term trends are shaped by supply dynamics—particularly exchange reserves and staking activity.
Recent data reveals that Ethereum’s exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest level in over a year. Since April of the previous year, net withdrawals from exchanges have reached approximately 7 million ETH. This indicates that holders are moving their assets to private wallets or staking contracts rather than selling—reducing immediate sell-side pressure.
Staking plays a pivotal role in Ethereum’s economic model following the transition to proof-of-stake. By locking up ETH to validate transactions, participants contribute to network security while earning yield—a mechanism that inherently reduces circulating supply.
According to StakeRewards, the total amount of ETH staked has reached an all-time high of 29.6 million coins—up from 28.9 million just one month ago. With over 23% of the total supply now locked in staking contracts, the structural scarcity of liquid ETH is increasing.
👉 Explore real-time staking metrics and track Ethereum's supply dynamics across exchanges and wallets.
This growing staking rate suggests strong confidence among long-term holders. Even in sideways price markets, the willingness to lock up capital reflects an expectation of future value appreciation and ecosystem growth.
Derivatives Market Shows Balanced Sentiment—For Now
To assess whether trader sentiment is turning bullish, analysts often examine derivatives markets—particularly futures premiums and options skew.
The futures basis rate, or one-month futures premium, measures the difference between spot prices and futures contracts. In healthy, neutral markets, this premium typically ranges between 5% and 10% annualized due to carry costs and investor demand.
As of February 6, Ethereum’s one-month futures premium stood at 7%—slightly below the neutral threshold but showing modest improvement from earlier in the week. This suggests that leveraged long positions are present but not excessive.
Meanwhile, the 25% delta skew in options markets offers insight into hedging behavior. A positive skew indicates heightened demand for put options (bearish insurance), while a negative skew signals aggressive call buying (bullish speculation). Currently, Ethereum’s 30-day options skew remains within the neutral band of -7% to +7%, indicating neither fear nor euphoria among professional traders.
Although ETH rallied 3.9% on February 6—breaking above $2,350—there was no corresponding spike in protective put buying. This absence of defensive positioning suggests cautious optimism rather than full conviction.
Key Takeaway: No Euphoria, But No Fear Either
The lack of extreme readings in both futures and options markets implies that institutional and professional traders remain on the sidelines. There is no clear bullish breakout yet—but also no sign of capitulation.
If Ethereum manages to sustain momentum and push toward $2,650, it could trigger a wave of short covering and derivative-driven buying pressure. Such a move would likely catch many skeptical traders off guard.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why hasn't ETH broken above $2,350 despite positive fundamentals?
A: Price resistance at $2,350 reflects a balance between buying interest and lingering uncertainty. While fundamentals like staking growth and DApp dominance are strong, macroeconomic conditions and risk appetite play a significant role in short-term price action.
Q: Does Solana’s network outage benefit Ethereum?
A: Yes, indirectly. High-profile outages on competing chains highlight Ethereum’s superior uptime and decentralization—reinforcing its position as the most trusted platform for mission-critical DApps.
Q: How does staking affect ETH’s price?
A: Staking removes ETH from liquid circulation, creating structural scarcity. With nearly 30 million ETH locked up—and more entering staking daily—the available supply on exchanges shrinks, potentially amplifying upward price moves during demand surges.
Q: What does a neutral futures premium mean for traders?
A: A 7% premium suggests moderate demand for leveraged long positions without signs of overheating. It reflects cautious optimism rather than speculative frenzy—often a healthy precursor to sustained rallies.
Q: Can Ethereum reach $2,650 in the near term?
A: Technically possible if buying pressure increases and exchange outflows continue. A decisive break above $2,350 with rising volume could open the path to retesting $2,650—especially if broader crypto markets gain momentum.
Q: Are retail investors still active in the Ethereum ecosystem?
A: Absolutely. Weekly active addresses exceed 380,000 on base layer alone—and over 2 million when including Layer 2s. This sustained engagement signals strong grassroots support beyond institutional flows.
Final Outlook: A Quiet Build-Up to Potential Surprise
Ethereum’s short-term price action may seem stagnant, but beneath the surface, powerful structural forces are at work. Declining exchange reserves, record staking levels, resilient DApp activity, and growing Layer 2 adoption all point to accumulating strength.
While current derivatives metrics show balanced sentiment, any catalyst—a positive macro print, ETF speculation resurgence, or surge in DeFi activity—could tip the scales quickly. When that happens, the resulting move might not just reclaim $2,650—it could leave many traders genuinely surprised.
For now, patience pays. The foundation is being laid for what could be a powerful next phase in Ethereum’s evolution—not driven by hype, but by sustained usage and economic tightening.