Bitcoin has recently stabilized around the $80,000 mark, holding firm between $80,000 and $90,000 over the past week. This consolidation phase signals reduced downside risk below $70,000 and renews speculation about a potential breakout above $90,000. As market sentiment shifts toward optimism, analysts are turning to macroeconomic indicators to forecast the next major price movement. One of the most compelling perspectives comes from crypto analyst Colin—widely known as “The M2 Guy”—whose research draws a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price trajectory and the global M2 money supply.
This connection isn’t new, but it’s gaining renewed attention as liquidity trends suggest a significant shift may be on the horizon. By analyzing historical patterns of monetary expansion and Bitcoin’s delayed price response, Colin outlines two plausible scenarios for a major rally—one pointing to late March, the other to late April.
Understanding the M2 Money Supply and Its Impact on Bitcoin
The global M2 money supply represents the total amount of easily accessible money in circulation across major economies, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money. It serves as a crucial indicator of liquidity in financial systems and often precedes movements in risk assets like stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin, despite its decentralized nature, has increasingly shown sensitivity to macro liquidity flows. When central banks expand the money supply through quantitative easing or accommodative policies, excess capital often seeks higher returns in alternative assets—Bitcoin being a prime beneficiary during bull cycles.
Colin’s analysis focuses on the time-lagged relationship between spikes in the global M2 and subsequent Bitcoin price rallies. Specifically, he examines two key offsets: 70-day and 107-day delays between monetary expansion and BTC price reactions. These intervals are derived from historical data across multiple market cycles.
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Among the two, the 107-day offset demonstrates a stronger mathematical correlation with past Bitcoin rallies. This suggests that while an earlier move is possible, a more powerful and sustained breakout may occur later in the spring, aligning with deeper market absorption of new liquidity.
Two Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Next Major Move
Based on the M2 analysis, two distinct timelines emerge for Bitcoin’s next price explosion:
Scenario 1: The 70-Day Offset – Rally Around March 24
If history repeats with a shorter delay, Bitcoin could see a substantial upward move by March 24. This scenario implies that recent liquidity injections have already started filtering into digital asset markets. In this case, investor confidence, whale accumulation, and institutional inflows could combine to push BTC toward $122,000 by June.
This would represent a rapid ascent from current levels near $86,000, fueled by renewed FOMO (fear of missing out) and macro tailwinds such as rate cut expectations and increased adoption.
Scenario 2: The 107-Day Offset – Stronger Move by April 30
Alternatively, if the more historically accurate 107-day pattern holds, the major rally would be delayed until around April 30. While later, this scenario often correlates with more robust and longer-lasting bull runs. The additional time allows broader market participation and deeper capital rotation into risk assets.
Under this model, Bitcoin could reach approximately $130,000 by July, surpassing previous all-time highs and potentially triggering a new phase of mainstream adoption.
Both scenarios assume continued growth in the global money supply and no major black swan events disrupting financial markets. They also hinge on Bitcoin maintaining its current support zone—a sign that smart money is accumulating ahead of the next leg up.
Why Liquidity Is Key to Bitcoin’s Price Surge
Liquidity is the lifeblood of any financial market. When governments and central banks increase the money supply, that capital doesn’t stay idle—it moves. And increasingly, a portion flows into Bitcoin due to its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, making it an attractive hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Recent on-chain data supports this narrative. Analysts have observed a resurgence in whale accumulation, with large holders increasing their BTC holdings after months of distribution. This shift suggests confidence among deep-pocketed investors who anticipate higher prices ahead.
Additionally, exchange outflows have risen, indicating that investors are moving Bitcoin to self-custody wallets rather than selling—another bullish signal.
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With inflation pressures lingering and central banks signaling potential rate cuts in 2025, real yields are expected to decline. This environment typically favors non-yielding but scarce assets like Bitcoin over traditional bonds or cash.
Projected Price Targets: Breaking $120,000 and Beyond
While Colin’s analysis doesn’t specify exact entry points or trading strategies, the implied price targets are clear:
- $122,000 target by June under the 70-day offset model
- $130,000 target by July under the 107-day offset model
These projections are not speculative guesses but are rooted in empirical data linking monetary policy to asset performance. If global liquidity continues expanding at current rates—driven by fiscal stimulus, deficit spending, or monetary easing—Bitcoin is well-positioned to absorb a significant share of that flow.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $85,850, up 3% in the past 24 hours. Technical indicators suggest it’s currently in an accumulation phase, where long-term investors build positions before the next breakout.
A daily close above $90,000 could confirm bullish momentum and accelerate momentum-driven buying. Conversely, sustained trading below $78,000 might delay the rally and prompt further consolidation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the global M2 money supply?
A: The global M2 money supply measures the total amount of liquid money in major economies, including cash, checking deposits, and near-money assets like savings accounts. It reflects overall financial liquidity and influences investment behavior.
Q: How does M2 affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Increases in M2 often lead to excess capital seeking high-return investments. Bitcoin, as a scarce digital asset, benefits from this flow during periods of low interest rates and high inflation.
Q: Why are 70-day and 107-day offsets important?
A: These time lags represent historical delays between monetary expansion and Bitcoin price rallies. The 107-day offset has shown stronger predictive power across multiple cycles.
Q: Is Bitcoin entering a bull market?
A: Signs point to an emerging bull phase, supported by stabilization above $80,000, rising whale activity, and favorable macro conditions. A confirmed breakout above $90,000 would strengthen this outlook.
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach $130,000?
A: Based on historical patterns and current liquidity trends, yes. Previous cycles saw similar or larger gains when macro conditions aligned. Adoption growth and institutional interest further support higher price targets.
Q: What should investors do now?
A: Given the favorable setup, accumulating BTC during this consolidation phase may offer strong risk-reward potential. Monitoring key levels like $78,000 (support) and $90,000 (breakout) can guide entry and exit decisions.
Final Thoughts: Preparing for the Next Leg Up
Bitcoin’s relationship with global liquidity remains one of the most reliable long-term predictors of its price action. As central banks navigate post-pandemic economic challenges, their policies continue to shape capital flows—and increasingly favor hard-to-inflate assets like BTC.
Whether the next surge arrives in late March or extends into late April, the underlying driver remains the same: liquidity follows value, and Bitcoin continues to prove itself as a store of value in an era of monetary expansion.
Investors watching these macro signals closely may find themselves ahead of the curve when the next major move begins.
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As always, conduct thorough research and consider risk management strategies before making investment decisions. While historical patterns provide guidance, markets remain dynamic—and preparedness is key.
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