Solana’s native cryptocurrency, SOL, dropped 7.84% to $145.08 on July 1, 2025, just one day before the highly anticipated launch of the first U.S.-based Solana staking ETF. Despite expectations that the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF—set to begin trading on July 2 under ticker symbol SSK—would ignite investor enthusiasm, the market responded with a short-term sell-off.
This new financial product marks a pivotal development for crypto investors in the United States. Unlike conventional spot ETFs that merely track price movements, the REX-Osprey fund offers direct exposure to Solana (SOL) while enabling participants to earn staking rewards, blending capital appreciation with yield generation.
Approximately 80% of the ETF’s assets will be allocated directly to SOL tokens, with around half of those holdings actively staked on the Solana network. This structure allows investors to benefit from the blockchain’s proof-of-stake consensus mechanism without managing private keys or running validator nodes—a major step toward mainstream accessibility.
Regulatory positioning further strengthens its appeal: the fund operates under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which typically affords greater investor protections than offerings under the 1933 Act. This framework may also streamline future approvals for similar products, signaling growing regulatory clarity for crypto-based financial instruments.
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Strong Network Fundamentals Amid Price Volatility
Even as SOL’s price pulled back, on-chain metrics reveal robust growth in Solana’s ecosystem. On June 28, the number of wallet addresses holding at least 0.1 SOL reached an all-time high of 11.44 million, coinciding with a brief price spike to $150.76.
This surge in small-holder participation reflects increasing grassroots confidence in Solana’s long-term viability. A rising base of retail and mid-tier holders often signals organic demand rather than speculative trading, reinforcing network resilience.
Further supporting this narrative is sustained net outflow from centralized exchanges. As of July 1, over $525.32 million worth of SOL had moved off exchanges and into private wallets—an indicator commonly associated with long-term holding strategies.
When large volumes of tokens exit liquid markets, it reduces immediate sell-side pressure and can contribute to a supply squeeze if demand remains steady or increases. With fewer tokens available for immediate sale, even modest buying interest could drive significant price appreciation over time.
These fundamentals suggest that while short-term traders may have reacted negatively to the ETF launch timing, longer-term holders continue to accumulate, viewing current prices as an opportunity rather than a risk.
Institutional Interest Grows in Derivatives Markets
While spot prices declined, derivatives markets painted a more bullish picture. Futures trading volume surged 88.74% to $20.24 billion within 24 hours, with open interest climbing 4.14% to $7.22 billion. This divergence between spot and futures activity highlights strong institutional appetite despite retail hesitation.
Options markets mirrored this trend, recording a 37.27% increase in volume and a 17.76% rise in open interest. Growing participation across both futures and options suggests that sophisticated traders are positioning for increased volatility or an upcoming breakout.
Market sentiment was further confirmed by the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, which remained above 1.0 across major exchanges—indicating dominant buying pressure. Binance showed a ratio of 1.9842, while OKX recorded an even higher bullish reading at 2.16, underscoring aggressive accumulation during the dip.
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Technical Analysis: Bullish Patterns Emerge
From a technical perspective, SOL is forming a short-term bullish triangle pattern, characterized by converging support and resistance levels with decreasing volatility. The recent price action has already breached immediate resistance zones, suggesting momentum may be building for a breakout.
Key support levels are located at $144.87** and **$139.88. If these floors hold, analysts project a potential rally toward $184.88—a 27% upside from current levels.
On the medium-term chart, SOL is trading within a broader ascending structure bounded by a descending trend line resistance. A confirmed breakout above this level could unlock three successive targets:
- First target: $181.46
- Second target: $203.98
- Third target: $244.00
During Monday’s session, SOL encountered resistance at $157.42 early in the trading cycle. The most significant volume spike occurred at 06:00 UTC, with over 1.57 million units traded, indicating strong institutional engagement.
Support emerged at $146.55 during the 14:00 UTC hour, accompanied by elevated volume—typical of accumulation behavior by large buyers stepping in during weakness.
The daily low was recorded between 19:01 and 20:00 UTC at $145.08, aligning closely with the key support zone now being tested.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What makes the REX-Osprey Solana ETF different from other crypto ETFs?
A: Unlike standard spot ETFs that only track price changes, this fund provides direct ownership of SOL tokens and includes staking rewards—offering both capital gains and yield in one investment vehicle.
Q: Why did SOL drop despite positive ETF news?
A: Markets often experience "buy the rumor, sell the news" reactions. Traders may have taken profits ahead of the ETF launch, especially given recent gains leading up to June 30.
Q: Is the decline in SOL price a sign of weakening fundamentals?
A: No. On-chain data shows rising wallet adoption and exchange outflows—both signs of strengthening fundamentals despite short-term price fluctuations.
Q: How does staking work within an ETF structure?
A: The fund stakes approximately half of its SOL holdings through trusted validators, distributing earned rewards proportionally to shareholders—similar to dividend payouts in traditional funds.
Q: What are the key technical levels traders should watch?
A: Immediate support sits at $144.87 and $139.88; resistance is near $157.42. A close above $157 could signal momentum toward $184+ targets.
Q: Could more Solana ETFs follow this model?
A: Yes—Grayscale, VanEck, and Bitwise have already filed applications for similar staking-enabled SOL ETFs, suggesting this could become an industry standard.
Final Outlook: Short-Term Pullback, Long-Term Upside
The recent dip in Solana’s price appears to be a temporary correction amid broader market recalibration. While the immediate reaction to the staking ETF launch was underwhelming, deeper metrics tell a compelling story of growing adoption, institutional interest, and technical strength.
With network usage expanding, exchange reserves declining, and derivatives markets showing strong bullish positioning, the foundation for a sustained rally remains intact. If key support levels hold and buying pressure continues in futures and spot markets, a move toward $180–$244 becomes increasingly plausible over the coming months.
For investors seeking exposure to high-performance blockchains with scalable infrastructure and growing real-world utility, Solana continues to stand out—not just for its technology, but for its evolving financial ecosystem.
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