Ripple’s XRP token continues to trade within a critical technical pattern amid renewed regulatory developments. Despite a 3% drop on Tuesday, XRP is testing key support levels as market participants assess the implications of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially acknowledging Bitwise’s XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposal.
This development adds momentum to the growing institutional interest in XRP, though significant hurdles remain—both technically and fundamentally. As the crypto market watches for potential approval timelines and evaluates underlying demand, XRP’s price action could hinge on whether it maintains its current symmetrical triangle formation.
SEC Acknowledges Bitwise XRP ETF Application
The SEC formally acknowledged the XRP ETF application filed by Bitwise through the Cboe BZX Exchange on Tuesday. This procedural step marks an important milestone in the path toward potential approval.
With this acknowledgment, the public comment period opens for 21 days, allowing stakeholders and investors to voice support or concerns. Following that, the SEC has up to 240 days to make a final determination on whether to approve or reject the product.
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This isn’t the first such move—the regulatory body had previously accepted similar filings from Grayscale and 21Shares. Only applications from WisdomTree and Canary Capital remain unacknowledged at this stage.
Still, analysts at Unchained Crypto caution that even if approved, an XRP ETF might underperform expectations due to several structural challenges:
- Limited institutional understanding: Many institutional investors are still adapting to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Expanding into altcoins like XRP may take longer than anticipated.
- Weak revenue fundamentals: The XRP Ledger generated only $1.15 million in transaction fees during 2024, a stark contrast to Ethereum’s over $1 billion in network fees over the same period.
- Supply pressure concerns: Ripple holds approximately 4.485 billion XRP in treasury reserves, with another 38.9 billion held in escrow. If released gradually or unexpectedly, this supply could create downward price pressure.
Despite these concerns, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate a 65% chance of eventual approval—even with the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC still unresolved. Their reasoning hinges on increasing regulatory clarity and precedent-setting decisions involving other digital assets.
Technical Outlook: Symmetrical Triangle Decides XRP’s Next Move
From a technical perspective, XRP is at a pivotal juncture. According to Coinglass data, the token saw $10.91 million in futures liquidations over the past 24 hours, with long positions absorbing $8.7 million of that amount—indicating aggressive selling pressure.
Over the last three days, XRP failed to break above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, leading to a nearly 10% correction. The decline pushed the price below both the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling weakening short-term momentum.
Currently, the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle around $2.17** serves as immediate support. A successful bounce from this level could open the door for a retest of resistance near **$2.72.
However, a close below $1.96** would invalidate the bullish structure and likely accelerate losses toward **$1.60–$1.80, depending on market sentiment and broader macro conditions.
Key Indicators Signal Bearish Momentum
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Has dipped below the neutral 50 level and is approaching its moving average (yellow line). A break below this line could confirm bearish dominance.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Also fell beneath the 50 threshold, reinforcing downside momentum.
- Volume Profile: Declining volume during recent pullbacks suggests waning buying conviction.
A daily candle closing below $1.96 would be a strong bearish signal, potentially triggering further stop-loss cascades and margin calls across leveraged positions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What does SEC acknowledgment mean for an ETF?
Acknowledgment means the SEC has reviewed the initial filing and accepted it for further evaluation. It does not imply approval but starts the formal review clock—giving regulators up to 240 days to decide.
Why might an XRP ETF underperform?
Institutional adoption lags behind Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Additionally, low fee generation on the XRP Ledger and large circulating supply controlled by Ripple raise concerns about long-term value accrual.
Is XRP still legally uncertain?
Yes. The SEC continues its lawsuit against Ripple Labs over whether XRP qualifies as an unregistered security. While recent court rulings favored Ripple, the case isn't fully resolved.
What is a symmetrical triangle pattern?
It's a neutral chart pattern formed by converging trendlines connecting lower highs and higher lows. A breakout or breakdown from this pattern typically signals the start of a new trend—bullish if upward, bearish if downward.
How much XRP is in escrow?
Ripple places 1 billion XRP into escrow each month, with unutilized funds returned to escrow. Currently, over 38 billion XRP remain in escrow, acting as a controlled release mechanism to prevent sudden inflation.
Can XRP reach $3 in 2025?
That depends on ETF approvals, broader crypto market trends, and institutional inflows. With current resistance near $2.72 and weak momentum, a move to $3 would require strong catalysts—such as a favorable SEC ruling or surge in global payments adoption.
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Broader Market Context
While XRP faces internal challenges, external factors also play a role. Bitcoin recently surged past $110,000, driven by stronger-than-expected jobs data and optimism around macroeconomic policy shifts. However, looming U.S. tariff deadlines under former President Trump’s proposed policies have introduced uncertainty across risk assets—including crypto-linked equities like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Meanwhile, Ripple continues expanding its footprint beyond speculation. Its stablecoin RLUSD is gaining traction in traditional finance, with AMINA Bank AG becoming the first institution to support it—highlighting growing institutional confidence in blockchain-based financial infrastructure.
Even Cardano (ADA) showed signs of consolidation after a 1% dip delayed a potential breakout, with over 2.34 billion ADA entering profitable territory this week—possibly increasing selling pressure ahead.
Final Thoughts
XRP stands at a crossroads in 2025—caught between evolving regulation, technical vulnerability, and long-term utility potential. The SEC's acknowledgment of Bitwise’s ETF application provides a glimmer of hope, but fundamental weaknesses in revenue and supply dynamics cannot be ignored.
Traders should closely monitor the $2.17–$1.96 support zone and upcoming technical confirmations. A breakdown could lead to deeper corrections, while a breakout above $2.72 might reignite bullish momentum.
As always in crypto markets, volatility remains high. Investors should prioritize risk management and consider diversified exposure rather than relying solely on speculative assets.
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Core Keywords: XRP, SEC, ETF, symmetrical triangle, Ripple, technical analysis, cryptocurrency trading