The cryptocurrency market has entered a pivotal phase as Bitcoin surges toward the $77,000 mark, driven by geopolitical de-escalation and landmark U.S. financial policy shifts. What began as a crisis-induced dip has rapidly transformed into a powerful rally, signaling renewed confidence in digital assets as both a hedge and a mainstream financial instrument.
Geopolitical Calm Sparks Market Recovery
Tensions flared across the Middle East earlier this month when Iran launched a significant missile barrage, met by Israel’s advanced Arrow defense systems in a dramatic night sky confrontation. The single-day military expenditure was estimated at 9,400 BTC—valued at over $900 million during the conflict period—triggering a spike in global fear indices.
Bitcoin briefly dipped to $98,000 (approximately 716,000 CNY), reflecting market anxiety. However, within 48 hours, a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel dramatically eased pressure on risk assets. The world’s leading cryptocurrency responded swiftly, reclaiming lost ground and stabilizing above the critical 756,000 CNY ($103,600) level.
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“Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience,” noted analysts at CryptoQuant. “The $103,600 mark isn’t just a technical support level—it’s a psychological line in the sand for bulls. Holding it confirms that the underlying bullish structure remains intact.”
Bull Market Fundamentals Strengthen
Despite short-term volatility, long-term indicators point to a maturing and increasingly robust bull cycle. Historical analysis reveals that since the bull market began in November 2022, Bitcoin has undergone only two corrections exceeding 30%—in August 2024 and April 2025—each followed by new all-time highs within months.
The current correction stands at just -7% on a weekly basis, far below levels typically associated with market breakdowns.
Exchange outflows further reinforce this strength. Data shows Binance's monthly Bitcoin net inflow has plummeted to 5,700 BTC—less than half the four-year average of 12,000 BTC and down 71.5% from its March 2025 peak of 20,000 BTC.
“This is classic ‘HODL’ behavior,” said analyst Darkfost. “When supply dries up on exchanges, it means holders are locking in their positions. Low sell pressure sets the stage for explosive upward moves.”
Funding Rates Signal Imminent Squeeze
Even as price climbs, funding rates on Binance’s Bitcoin perpetual contracts have turned negative, dropping to -0.0033%. This indicates a growing number of traders are betting on a price decline—an increasingly risky position.
History offers a cautionary tale: in September 2024, a similar buildup of short positions led to a violent short squeeze, propelling Bitcoin upward by 40% in one month.
“Negative funding rates are the best kind of fuel for a bull market,” said veteran trader Michael Van De Poppe. “$106,500 (about 777,000 CNY) isn’t a ceiling—it’s a stepping stone. Every dip is an opportunity.”
U.S. Opens Mortgage Market to Bitcoin
While markets digested Middle East developments, a far more transformative shift occurred in the United States. On June 25, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) issued a directive requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as qualifying collateral for mortgage reserves.
This administrative action bypasses lengthy congressional processes, instantly unlocking access to the multi-trillion-dollar U.S. housing finance system.
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Borrowers can now use Bitcoin holdings from regulated exchanges like Coinbase as proof of asset value—without converting to fiat currency first. The directive mandates both agencies to develop volatility hedging frameworks and establish dedicated crypto reserves.
“This is a historic moment for digital assets,” declared FHFA Director William J. Pulte. “We are advancing the vision of making America the global hub for cryptocurrency innovation.”
The policy paves the way for widespread institutional allocation to Bitcoin, potentially unlocking unprecedented demand from traditional finance players.
Technical Outlook: A Breakout on the Horizon
Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $770,000 and $778,000 CNY (approximately $105,800–$106,800), with technical indicators flashing strong bullish signals:
- Bullish moving average alignment: Price holds above both the 50-period (769,000 CNY) and 100-period (768,000 CNY) 12-hour moving averages.
- Volatility compression: Bitcoin has spent nine consecutive weeks in a tightening range—a pattern that preceded an 80% rally after the December 2024 breakout.
- Key resistance at $109,300 (797,000 CNY): This level marks the April all-time high and a zone of algorithmic sell orders. A decisive break above would likely trigger accelerated buying.
“Market conditions are aligning perfectly,” said a quant fund CEO. “With geopolitical risk fading, U.S. policy tailwinds strengthening, and technicals pointing upward, we could see Bitcoin reach six figures in yuan this summer.”
Beyond Bitcoin: Emerging Signals in the Broader Market
While Bitcoin leads the charge, strategic developments suggest broader ecosystem growth.
Tether’s $10 Billion Mining Ambition
Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, confirmed plans to invest $10 billion into building the world’s largest Bitcoin mining operation. Facilities are already operational across Latin America, including El Salvador.
“Our goal is to become stewards of network security,” Ardoino stated. “Ensuring decentralized hash power is essential for Bitcoin’s long-term integrity.”
Altcoin Momentum Builds
Signs of an emerging altseason are appearing:
- XRP broke out of a weekly descending triangle, with Ichimoku indicators turning bullish—targeting $3.61 (26.3 CNY).
- Ethereum is testing a key resistance at $2,400 (17,520 CNY). A breakout could open the path to $3,050 (22,260 CNY).
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Bitcoin truly becoming a safe-haven asset?
A: Increasingly, yes. Its resilience during Middle East tensions—combined with adoption by major financial institutions—shows it’s evolving beyond speculative status into a recognized store of value.
Q: How significant is the U.S. mortgage policy change?
A: Extremely. By integrating crypto into mortgage reserves, the U.S. is legitimizing digital assets at the institutional level—potentially unlocking trillions in latent demand.
Q: Could Bitcoin really hit $1 million per coin?
A: While speculative, many analysts believe it’s possible within this cycle given constrained supply, growing demand, and macro tailwinds.
Q: What does negative funding rate mean for traders?
A: It signals excessive bearish sentiment. When combined with rising prices, it often precedes sharp rallies as short positions get liquidated.
Q: Is now a good time to buy?
A: With low exchange liquidity and strong fundamentals, many experts view pullbacks as accumulation opportunities rather than warning signs.
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Conclusion: A New Financial Era Begins
The convergence of geopolitical stability, progressive regulation, and powerful on-chain dynamics has created a perfect storm for Bitcoin’s ascent. From being used as collateral in U.S. mortgages to surviving regional conflicts unscathed, its role in global finance is being redefined.
The 770,000 CNY milestone isn’t an end—it’s the launchpad for what may become one of the most transformative bull runs in financial history. As institutions align and market structure strengthens, the path toward new highs appears clearer than ever.
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