The cryptocurrency market has shown strong momentum this week, with Bitcoin leading the charge. After surging to a high of $13,350 and finding support at $11,407, Bitcoin currently trades around $12,981—an impressive 12.8% weekly gain. Despite mixed news flow, market reactions reveal a telling pattern: bullish sentiment dominates. For instance, concerns over OKEx founder Star Xu’s investigation had minimal impact, while PayPal’s announcement allowing users to buy Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies triggered a sharp rally, pushing BTC to its highest level of the year and nearing last year’s peak.
This selective reaction—strong on good news, muted on bad—is a classic hallmark of a maturing bull market. Let’s dive into the long-term technical structure, cycles, and wave patterns shaping Bitcoin’s next major move.
Bitcoin’s Historical Bottom Cycles: A Pattern Emerges
One of the most compelling aspects of Bitcoin’s price behavior is its recurring bottom cycle. Over the past eight years, six distinct bottoming phases have formed, averaging approximately 15 months between each low:
- August 2012 to October 2013: 14 months
- October 2013 to January 2015: 15 months
- January 2015 to May 2016: 16 months
- May 2016 to September 2017: 16 months
- September 2017 to December 2018: 15 months
- December 2018 to March 2020: 15 months
Following this rhythm, the next potential bottom window opens between May and July 2021—a critical timeframe for long-term investors watching for accumulation zones ahead of the next major leg up.
👉 Discover how historical patterns can shape future crypto gains.
These cyclical tendencies suggest that Bitcoin doesn’t move randomly but instead follows a rhythm influenced by halving events, macroeconomic shifts, and investor psychology—all converging into predictable troughs and peaks.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Are We in Wave (5) Now?
Technical analysts often use Elliott Wave Theory to map out potential future price paths based on crowd psychology and fractal wave structures. When applied to Bitcoin, two primary interpretations emerge.
Primary Interpretation: The Fifth Wave Is Underway
According to the preferred count:
- Wave (3) ended in December 2017 after a massive rally.
- The correction from that peak to the December 2018 low marked Wave (4).
- Since then, Bitcoin has been in Wave (5)—the final impulse phase of the broader bull cycle.
This interpretation aligns with strong momentum post-March 2020 crash and supports the idea that we’re now in the last explosive leg of a multi-year advance.
Secondary Count: Wave (4) Ended in March 2020
An alternative view treats the March 13, 2020 low as the end of an extended and complex double-three correction, finalizing Wave (4). From there, the current rise constitutes Wave (5), subdividing into smaller internal waves: (i), (ii), (iii), etc.
While both counts differ slightly in labeling, they agree on one crucial point: the move from March 2020 onward is part of a powerful upward impulse.
Inside Wave (5): Tracking Sub-Waves (i), (ii), and Now (iii)
Zooming into the current structure within Wave (5):
- Wave (i): March 13 to August 17 rally — up 8,648 points
- Wave (ii): August 17 to September 5 correction
- Wave (iii): Ongoing rally from September 5
Wave (iii) is typically the strongest and longest segment in any impulse sequence. Based on Elliott Wave principles:
- A minimum target assumes Wave (iii) equals Wave (i):
$9,834 + 8,648 = **$18,482** - More commonly, Wave (iii) reaches 1.618x the length of Wave (i):
$9,834 + (8,648 × 1.618) ≈ **$23,826**
This suggests that even under conservative estimates, Bitcoin has significant room to run before reaching the core target zone of $23,000–$24,000.
👉 See how real-time data can help predict the next big breakout.
Higher-Degree Target: Could We See $21K+ in Wave (5)3?
Taking a broader lens, consider the larger fifth wave structure:
- Wave (5)1: From December 2018 low ($3,148) to June 2019 high ($13,831) — gain of ~10,683 points
- If Wave (5)3 matches that gain: $3,941 + 10,683 = **$14,624**
But here's the problem: $14,624 is too low to qualify as a proper third wave. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave (3) should never be the shortest, and ideally it's the longest.
Thus, a more realistic projection uses the 1.618 extension:
- $3,941 + (10,683 × 1.618) ≈ **$21,226**
Even this may be conservative given the strength observed in recent price action. With institutional adoption accelerating and macro tailwinds like quantitative easing supporting digital assets, a surge beyond $21,000 becomes not just plausible—but likely.
Moreover, if internal Wave (iii) targets $23,826, then subsequent waves (iv) and (v) could push Bitcoin well above **$25,000**, potentially setting new all-time highs before any major correction unfolds.
Core Keywords Driving This Outlook
To align with search intent and ensure discoverability, here are the key themes naturally embedded throughout this analysis:
- Bitcoin long-term forecast
- BTC price prediction
- Elliott Wave Bitcoin
- Bitcoin cycle analysis
- Cryptocurrency bull market
- Bitcoin technical analysis
- BTC historical trends
- Next Bitcoin peak
These terms reflect what active investors and traders are searching for—data-backed projections grounded in technical structure rather than hype.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
Yes. The strong reaction to positive news—like PayPal’s entry—and muted response to negative headlines indicate underlying bullish strength. Technical indicators and cycle timing also support ongoing bull momentum.
Q: What is the most likely target for Bitcoin in this cycle?
Based on Elliott Wave extensions and historical patterns, $23,800–$25,000 is a high-probability target range for the peak of this leg. Some models suggest even higher levels post-2025 halving.
Q: How reliable is Elliott Wave Theory for crypto?
While no method is foolproof, Elliott Wave provides a structured framework for understanding market psychology. In Bitcoin’s case—known for parabolic moves—it often captures trend phases more effectively than traditional indicators.
Q: When might the next major correction occur?
A significant pullback could follow after Wave (5) completes, likely sometime in late 2025 or early 2026. Until then, dips may offer buying opportunities within the broader uptrend.
Q: Does the halving affect these projections?
Absolutely. The April 2024 halving reduced new supply entering the market—a fundamental driver historically linked to price increases over the following 12–18 months.
👉 Stay ahead of halving-driven rallies with advanced trading tools.
Final Thoughts: The Big Bull Is Charging
The confluence of cyclical timing, Elliott Wave progression, and growing institutional interest paints a powerful picture: Bitcoin is likely in the early stages of its final upward thrust before a major cycle top.
Whether you're analyzing through wave counts or macro cycles, one truth stands out—the risk/reward favors holding through volatility. With targets stretching toward $25K and beyond, now is not the time to exit but to prepare for what could be one of the most explosive phases in Bitcoin’s history.
Stay informed. Stay strategic. And watch the $23K–$25K zone closely—it may soon be history.