Bitcoin’s recent rally is showing signs of stalling as it meets strong resistance near the $95,000 level. Despite a powerful breakout above key moving averages, momentum is waning, and technical indicators are flashing caution signals. With growing selling pressure and mixed on-chain sentiment, a short-term correction could be on the horizon before the next leg up.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $95K Gains Strength
Daily Chart – Bullish Momentum Fading
Last week, Bitcoin broke convincingly above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, reigniting bullish optimism across markets. This surge propelled BTC toward the psychologically significant $95,000 mark—a level that has repeatedly acted as a major swing high and order block zone.
However, as price approached this critical resistance, bullish momentum began to stall. The market has now entered a phase of tight, low-volatility consolidation, reflecting indecision among traders. This kind of sideways movement at key resistance levels often precedes either a breakout or a pullback.
👉 Discover how market momentum shifts can impact your trading strategy.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also entered overbought territory, suggesting that short-term buyers may be exhausted. Historically, such conditions have preceded corrective moves—especially when volume fails to support further upside.
If the $95K level continues to hold, the most likely outcome is a retracement toward the $90K support zone. This area is now reinforced by the convergence of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are transitioning into dynamic support. A successful retest and hold of this zone could lay the foundation for a renewed push toward all-time highs.
A confirmed breakout above $95K would open the door to $109,000—the previous record high—and reassert strong bullish control over the market.
4-Hour Chart – Bearish Reversal Patterns Emerge
On the 4-hour timeframe, the technical structure paints a clearer picture of weakening bullish conviction. After a sharp impulse move into $95K, Bitcoin failed to sustain higher highs, instead forming a textbook three-drives pattern—a classic bearish reversal setup often associated with smart money distribution.
This pattern suggests that experienced traders are taking profits at resistance, reducing upward pressure. Moreover, a bearish divergence has formed between price and the RSI: while price made higher highs, the oscillator failed to confirm, indicating diminishing buying momentum.
Such divergences are particularly reliable in high-liquidity markets like Bitcoin and often precede short-term corrections. Combined with strong supply clusters around $95K—visible through historical order flow data—the odds favor a downward adjustment.
The most probable scenario is a pullback to the $90K–$91K range, where institutional support and moving averages converge. If bulls successfully defend this zone with strong buying volume, it could serve as a springboard for another attempt at breaking $95K.
On-Chain Insights: Funding Rates Signal Caution
On-chain metrics provide valuable context beyond price action. One of the most telling indicators is funding rates, which reflect trader sentiment in perpetual futures markets.
During Bitcoin’s prolonged correction from March to October 2024, funding rates consistently turned negative—even during brief rallies. This indicated persistent bearish positioning and a lack of confidence among leveraged traders, many of whom were either hedging downside risk or actively shorting the market.
Now, history appears to be repeating itself. As BTC approached $95K in early 2025, funding rates flipped negative again—despite rising prices. This divergence suggests that:
- Traders are hedging against a potential reversal, anticipating rejection at resistance.
- Some market participants are distributing holdings, selling into strength rather than chasing momentum.
👉 Learn how sentiment analysis can improve your market timing.
This behavior typically reflects caution among sophisticated players who anticipate short-term downside. While not a definitive bearish signal, it increases the likelihood of a pullback—especially if retail demand fails to pick up.
Interestingly, such pullbacks often benefit the broader uptrend by shaking out weak hands and allowing accumulation at lower levels. If this correction unfolds cleanly and finds support near $90K, it may ultimately strengthen the long-term bullish structure.
Market Structure and Future Outlook
Bitcoin’s path forward hinges on two key factors: whether $95K can be broken with conviction, and how well $90K holds as support.
- Bullish Case: A decisive close above $95K with strong volume would invalidate current resistance and likely trigger a wave of short-covering. This could accelerate momentum toward $100K and eventually challenge the all-time high at $109K.
- Bearish Scenario: Failure to break $95K may lead to deeper selling, potentially extending the correction toward $87K or lower. This would test longer-term support zones and could delay the next major rally.
Given current technical and on-chain signals, a short-term correction appears more likely than an immediate breakout. However, this does not undermine the overall bullish trend established since late 2024.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is $95K such a strong resistance level for Bitcoin?
A: $95K is significant due to its psychological weight, alignment with prior swing highs, and dense order blocks from previous trading activity. It’s also a zone where large traders have historically taken profits.
Q: What does a bearish RSI divergence mean for Bitcoin?
A: It means that while price is rising, momentum is weakening. This often precedes reversals or corrections, especially when confirmed by volume or other indicators.
Q: Can Bitcoin still reach $109K this cycle?
A: Yes—many analysts believe $109K is within reach during this bull cycle. However, it will likely require sustained volume and resolution of current resistance at $95K.
Q: Is a drop below $90K a sign of trend reversal?
A: Not necessarily. While breaking $90K would be bearish in the short term, it would need to close well below that level (e.g., under $87K) to suggest structural damage to the uptrend.
Q: How do funding rates help predict Bitcoin’s price moves?
A: Negative funding rates during rallies suggest traders expect reversals. When prices rise but funding turns negative, it indicates skepticism among leveraged traders—often a precursor to pullbacks.
Q: What should traders watch next?
A: Key levels are $95K (resistance) and $90K (support). Watch for volume confirmation on breaks or rejections. Also monitor on-chain flows and exchange reserves for accumulation clues.
👉 Stay ahead with real-time data and advanced charting tools.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture. While the broader trend remains upward, short-term pressures are mounting at $95K. Technical indicators point to exhaustion, on-chain data reveals caution among leveraged traders, and price action suggests consolidation before the next move.
A pullback to $90K would be healthy and align with historical patterns seen in previous bull markets. For investors and traders alike, this phase offers an opportunity to reassess positioning and prepare for the next major move—whether up or down.
Core keywords: Bitcoin price analysis, BTC resistance, $95K Bitcoin, Bitcoin pullback, BTC technical analysis, Bitcoin support level, Bitcoin funding rates, BTC market sentiment
With volatility likely to increase in the coming weeks, staying informed and disciplined will be key to navigating what could be one of Bitcoin’s most decisive phases in 2025.