Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, has once again risen above the average cost basis for short-term holders (STH), signaling a potential shift in market momentum. After days of struggling against broader market headwinds, BTC has reclaimed a critical psychological and technical threshold—the STH Realized Price—offering renewed optimism for investors and traders alike.
This development is more than just a number on a chart. Historically, when Bitcoin crosses back above the average purchase price of short-term holders (those who have acquired BTC within the last 155 days), it often precedes strong bullish momentum. The move suggests that recent buyers are no longer in a losing position, which can restore confidence and encourage further accumulation.
Why the STH Realized Price Matters
The Short-Term Holder Realized Price represents the average price at which all bitcoins held by investors for less than 155 days were originally purchased. When the market price rises above this level, it indicates that the majority of recent buyers are now in profit—a powerful catalyst for market sentiment.
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Maarten, a market analyst and community manager at CryptoQuant, highlighted this trend in recent research. He noted that whenever Bitcoin returns to the STH Realized Price, short-term holders tend to increase their exposure, reinforcing a support zone that can fuel further upside.
“Recently, the Bitcoin price has reclaimed the STH Realized Price. This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.”
Since 2023, Bitcoin has seen two prior instances of reclaiming this key metric—each followed by rallies of at least 30%. With history potentially repeating itself, analysts are watching closely to see if this third occurrence could trigger a similar or even stronger upward movement.
Market Sentiment vs. On-Chain Reality
Despite the technical strength indicated by this recovery, on-chain data reveals a curious divergence in market sentiment. Santiment, a leading blockchain analytics platform, reported a sharp decline in positive social sentiment surrounding Bitcoin—even as prices rebounded moderately during the week.
This cooling in optimism suggests that many traders remain cautious or skeptical about the sustainability of the current rally. Notably, Santiment observed an increasing number of short positions being opened on major exchanges like Binance, with traders betting on a renewed downward correction.
However, such bearish positioning can sometimes act as fuel for a short squeeze—a rapid price increase that forces leveraged sellers to close their positions, amplifying upward momentum. With BTC already regaining key ground, any positive macro catalyst could ignite exactly that scenario.
Bull Case Gains Ground: $100K BTC Odds Rise
Even amid muted enthusiasm, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 continues to climb. According to Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market exchange, the odds of BTC hitting $100,000 before year-end now stand at 22%. The platform also assigns an 8% chance to a $150,000 peak and a **57% likelihood** of reaching $80,000.
These figures are derived from live trading activity—essentially reflecting what traders are willing to bet on future price outcomes. Unlike sentiment polls or analyst forecasts, prediction markets aggregate real financial commitments, making them a compelling gauge of market expectations.
Interestingly, Kalshi’s rising BTC forecasts coincide with growing political momentum around cryptocurrency ahead of the 2025 U.S. presidential election. Speculation surrounding potential pro-crypto policies—particularly under a possible Donald Trump administration—has contributed to increased bullish positioning in both traditional and digital asset markets.
Historical Precedent: A Pattern Worth Watching
The current market structure mirrors two previous episodes since 2023 when Bitcoin recovered above the STH Realized Price:
- First Reclaim (Q4 2023): Followed by a surge from ~$35,000 to over $47,000 (+34%).
- Second Reclaim (Q1 2024): Preceded a rally from ~$42,000 to nearly $73,000 (+74%).
In both cases, the reclamation of the cost basis acted as a springboard for significant gains. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the recurrence of this pattern adds weight to current bullish arguments.
Moreover, with institutional inflows resuming and spot Bitcoin ETFs continuing to see net purchases, underlying demand remains robust—further supporting the case for sustained upward pressure.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the Short-Term Holder Realized Price?
A: It’s the average price at which all bitcoins held by investors for less than 155 days were originally acquired. It serves as a key indicator of recent investor sentiment and break-even levels.
Q: Why is reclaiming the STH Realized Price considered bullish?
A: When BTC trades above this level, recent buyers move into profit, reducing selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of further buying—creating a self-reinforcing cycle of support and momentum.
Q: How reliable are prediction markets like Kalshi?
A: Prediction markets reflect real-money bets on future outcomes. While not infallible, they aggregate crowd intelligence and often provide more accurate forward-looking insights than polls or surveys.
Q: Could negative sentiment actually help Bitcoin rally?
A: Yes. Widespread pessimism or high short interest can set the stage for sharp reversals. When prices rise despite bearish sentiment, it often triggers short squeezes and FOMO-driven buying.
Q: What factors could accelerate BTC’s move toward $100K?
A: Key drivers include ETF inflows, macroeconomic shifts (like rate cuts), regulatory clarity, geopolitical instability increasing demand for hard assets, and pro-crypto political developments.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: While timing the market is challenging, reclaiming key support levels like the STH Realized Price often marks strategic entry points for long-term investors.
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Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s return above the short-term holder cost basis is more than just a technical milestone—it’s a psychological reset. After weeks of consolidation and fading optimism, this move rekindles hope for another leg up in the ongoing bull cycle.
With historical patterns favoring substantial gains after similar reclaims, rising odds of $100K BTC, and strong fundamentals intact, the stage may be set for another significant rally. Whether driven by institutional demand, macro shifts, or market dynamics like short squeezes, the path forward looks increasingly favorable.
For investors and traders alike, staying informed and prepared is crucial. Monitoring key on-chain metrics like the STH Realized Price can provide early signals of shifting momentum—helping you stay ahead of the curve in one of the most dynamic markets today.
Keywords: Bitcoin recovery, BTC price analysis, short-term holder realized price, Bitcoin bull run 2025, Bitcoin $100K prediction, on-chain analysis, cryptocurrency market trends