Will Solana Price Crash to $100?

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Solana (SOL) has enjoyed a remarkable run in early 2025, drawing attention from traders and investors alike with its rapid recovery and strong performance in the crypto market. However, by late May 2025, signs of weakening momentum have started to emerge. With the price hovering around $170, a growing number of market participants are asking: **Could Solana crash all the way to $100?**

While a drop of that magnitude may sound extreme, technical indicators suggest a correction is not only possible but increasingly likely if key support levels fail. Let’s dive into the data, analyze the charts, and assess what’s really driving Solana’s current price action.

Solana’s Daily Chart: Momentum Fading

The daily chart for SOL/USD reveals a clear shift from bullish momentum to sideways consolidation — and now, early signs of a downtrend. After a strong rally in April and early May that pushed prices toward $188, Solana has struggled to break past the $180 resistance level.

Price has now dipped below both the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), currently sitting at $173.51 and $154.39 respectively. This crossover is a classic bearish signal, indicating that short-term sentiment is turning negative. More concerning is the fact that the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level — a historically significant zone — has transformed from support into resistance near $180.

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A sustained close below the 20-day SMA could trigger further selling pressure, potentially pushing Solana toward the 100-day SMA at approximately $145. This level will be critical — if breached, it may open the door to deeper losses.

Hourly Chart: Early Signs of Breakdown

Zooming in on the hourly chart provides even clearer evidence of deteriorating strength. Solana recently broke down from a tight consolidation range between $174 and $176. The current price of $170.34 has now fallen below a confluence of moving averages — including the 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs — which are clustered between $172 and $175.

This breakdown suggests a short-term trend reversal, with bears taking control. Volume remains flat, showing little sign of institutional or retail buying interest stepping in to defend the level. Without strong demand, the path of least resistance appears downward.

Key intraday support levels to watch include:

If price closes decisively below $159 on an hourly candle, the next major support lies near **$140**, a level derived from earlier swing lows and reinforced by historical trading activity.

Could Solana Really Fall to $100?

While $100 may seem like a distant target, it’s not outside the realm of possibility under certain conditions.

Using Fibonacci extension analysis based on the recent swing high ($188) and swing low ($116), we can project potential downside targets:

That would represent a decline of over 45% from current levels — a significant drawdown, but not unprecedented in crypto markets during risk-off phases.

Such a move would likely require:

Without strong bullish reversal patterns or surging volume, the technical landscape favors further downside.

What Could Stop a Solana Crash?

Despite growing bearish pressure, there are still structural elements that could cushion a sharp decline.

First, the 200-day SMA at $180.74 remains unbroken on the daily chart. While price is currently below it, a decisive rejection here could reignite buying interest if supported by volume. Historically, long-term moving averages like this one often act as strong support zones during corrections.

Second, the weekly chart continues to hold above the 0.5 Fibonacci level (~$152), suggesting underlying strength remains intact for now. As long as this level holds, a full-blown collapse remains unlikely.

Finally, fundamental drivers continue to support Solana’s ecosystem:

These factors may not prevent short-term volatility, but they provide a floor against total capitulation.

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Realistic Price Outlook: $150 Next, Then Decision Point

Based on current technical structure, a move toward $150 appears increasingly probable in the near term. This aligns with both Fibonacci targets and key moving average convergence.

If $145 breaks — particularly on high volume — then momentum could accelerate toward $130 and eventually test the $100–$105 zone. However, such a scenario would likely require broader market weakness.

Conversely, if bulls reclaim and sustain price **above $180 with strong volume**, the bearish outlook would be invalidated, and we could see renewed upside toward $200 or higher.

For now, the path of least resistance remains downward.

Key Takeaways:

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is Solana likely to drop to $100 in 2025?
A: While not guaranteed, a drop to $100 is technically possible if key supports at $145 and $130 fail and broader market sentiment turns negative.

Q: What factors could prevent a Solana price crash?
A: Strong volume rebound above $180, sustained DeFi/NFT growth on-chain, and stability in Bitcoin’s price could help halt further declines.

Q: What is Solana’s strongest support level right now?
A: The 200-day SMA at $180.74 is the strongest immediate support. Below that, $145 (100-day SMA) becomes critical.

Q: Should I sell Solana if it drops below $170?
A: Not necessarily — but traders should monitor volume and momentum. A breakdown below $159 with high volume would be a stronger sell signal.

Q: Can Solana recover if it hits $130?
A: Yes — past performance shows Solana can rebound sharply after deep corrections, especially if ecosystem activity remains strong.

Q: How does Bitcoin’s price affect Solana?
A: As a high-beta altcoin, Solana tends to follow Bitcoin’s lead. A BTC drop below key supports (e.g., $58K) would increase downward pressure on SOL.

Solana’s journey in 2025 has been impressive, but technical signals now warn of increasing downside risks. While fundamentals remain strong, traders must respect price action and manage risk accordingly.

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