Bitcoin’s journey toward new all-time highs has entered a critical phase. After a strong rally from below $74,000 in April to a peak near $112,000, momentum appears to be cooling. While the broader bullish trend remains intact, analysts emphasize that a key catalyst must emerge for BTC to break through the next psychological and technical resistance zone and enter a true price discovery phase.
Core indicators such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) momentum, on-chain activity, and spot trading volume are signaling a market at an inflection point. For Bitcoin to surpass $112,000 and potentially reach targets as high as $165,000, certain conditions must align.
MVRV Momentum Slows: Sign of Late-Stage Bull Run?
One of the most closely watched metrics in the current cycle is the MVRV momentum indicator. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s MVRV slope has cooled to 2.22—well below the historically overbought threshold of 3.7. This suggests the asset is not yet in dangerous overvaluation territory.
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Yonsei_dent, a CryptoQuant analyst, notes that the current slowdown in MVRV momentum doesn’t necessarily indicate an impending correction. Instead, it may reflect the natural maturation of the bull market—potentially signaling entry into its late stage.
Historically, a flattening or slight decline in MVRV momentum has often preceded major breakouts, as long-term holders consolidate their positions and reduce selling pressure. If this pattern holds, renewed upward momentum could follow once investor confidence strengthens.
A rebound in MVRV would imply that more investors are holding through volatility, reinforcing the “hold” mentality that fuels extended rallies. When combined with sustained institutional inflows—particularly through Bitcoin ETFs—the stage could be set for a decisive breakout above $112,000.
On-Chain and Spot Volume Downturn Raises Concerns
Despite positive sentiment around macroeconomic easing and geopolitical de-escalation (such as the recent Israel-Iran tensions), on-chain and spot trading activity have declined—raising questions about the strength of underlying demand.
Glassnode data shows that the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin’s on-chain transfer volume dropped by approximately 32%, falling from a peak of $7.6 billion in late May to around $5.2 billion. This retreat suggests reduced economic activity on the network, often a sign of market consolidation or short-term fatigue.
Similarly, spot trading volume currently sits at about $7.7 billion—well below the cycle’s peak levels. Crucially, Glassnode highlights that the recent push toward $111,000 did not coincide with a surge in spot volume, unlike previous rallies in Q2 and Q4 of 2024.
This lack of volume confirmation is a red flag for many analysts. Historically, sustainable breakouts have been accompanied by strong spot market participation—indicating genuine demand rather than short-term speculation or futures-driven pumps.
Alva, a crypto market insights provider, stresses: “BTC’s real breakout needs more than hype. A high-volume push above $107,500 is the first technical trigger that lights the fuse.”
Low trading activity implies cautious investor sentiment. For Bitcoin to convincingly surpass $112,000, a resurgence in both on-chain transfers and exchange-based trading will be essential to validate upward price action.
Why Breaking $110,000 Is Critical for Next Move
Technically, Bitcoin has been consolidating between $100,000 and $110,000. According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, this range has become a key battleground for bulls and bears.
For the next leg up to begin, analysts agree that BTC must convert the current resistance zone—between $108,000 and $110,000—into support. This means not only breaking above it but also holding gains with strong follow-through buying.
AlphaBTC, a prominent Bitcoin analyst, noted in a recent X post: “Breaking the $108K–$110K level will take significant effort.” He anticipates a pullback to the $104,000–$105,000 range to build fresh momentum before another attempt.
A decisive four-hour closing price above $109,000 could serve as the trigger for new all-time highs. As AlphaBTC explains, such a close would signal strong institutional and retail conviction.
Rekt Capital echoes this view, identifying $108,000 as the “last major weekly resistance” Bitcoin bulls must overcome. Once cleared, the path toward uncharted territory opens up.
Michael van de Poppe of MN Capital adds that “$109,000 is the zone we need to break for upward momentum,” concluding simply: “The breakout is coming.”
With high liquidity clusters forming around $111,000, traders are closely watching whether price can absorb these sell walls or get rejected once again.
👉 See how liquidity zones influence Bitcoin's price trajectory during key breakout attempts.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is MVRV momentum and why does it matter for Bitcoin?
A: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) momentum measures the ratio of Bitcoin’s current market price to its realized price (the average price when each coin was last moved). A rising MVRV suggests increasing profitability and bullish sentiment. When momentum slows after a rally, it can indicate consolidation before the next leg up—or overheating if levels are too high.
Q: Why is spot trading volume important for Bitcoin’s price breakout?
A: Spot volume reflects real buying and selling of Bitcoin—not leveraged bets. High spot volume during a price rise confirms strong demand from actual investors. Without it, rallies may be driven by futures speculation and are more likely to reverse.
Q: What happens if Bitcoin fails to break above $112,000?
A: Failure to break resistance could lead to extended sideways movement or a deeper correction toward $104,000–$105,000. However, as long as the broader trend remains above key moving averages (like the 50-day SMA), the long-term outlook stays positive.
Q: Can Bitcoin still reach $165,000 in 2025?
A: Yes—many analysts believe so, but only if on-chain activity, spot volume, and investor confidence recover. Sustained ETF inflows and macro tailwinds like rate cuts could provide additional fuel.
Q: How do on-chain transfers affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: On-chain transfers reflect real economic activity. A drop suggests reduced usage or holder hesitation; a rise indicates growing network engagement. Consistent growth often precedes major price moves.
Q: What is price discovery in crypto markets?
A: Price discovery refers to the process where market forces determine a new equilibrium price—especially after breaking out of established ranges. For Bitcoin, moving beyond $112,000 would mark entry into uncharted territory with no recent historical resistance.
With momentum indicators stabilizing, volume patterns under scrutiny, and technical resistance looming, Bitcoin stands at a pivotal moment. The path to $165,000 remains open—but only if demand returns with conviction.
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