The beginning of 2025 brought significant turbulence to the cryptocurrency markets, sparking widespread debate among investors: Is the Bitcoin bull run over? After reaching an all-time high near $109,100 in early January, Bitcoin (BTC) entered a prolonged consolidation phase, now trading around $84,100. This sharp correction—nearly 23% from its peak—has fueled uncertainty. Yet, emerging data and expert analysis suggest the broader bull cycle remains intact, with key catalysts potentially unlocking major price movements in the coming weeks.
Understanding whether we're witnessing the end of a rally or merely a pause before the next leg up is crucial for informed decision-making. Let’s explore the current market dynamics, analyst insights, macroeconomic indicators, and what they collectively imply for the future of Bitcoin and the wider crypto ecosystem.
Understanding the Current Market Phase
A crypto bull run refers to a sustained period of rising prices across digital assets, driven by increasing adoption, institutional interest, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. While short-term volatility is expected, the long-term trajectory depends on deeper structural trends.
Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects classic mid-cycle behavior—sharp upward momentum followed by consolidation. After surging past $100,000 amid ETF inflows and speculative enthusiasm, profit-taking and macro headwinds led to a pullback. However, this doesn’t signal the end of the cycle. Instead, many analysts interpret it as a healthy correction before the next phase of growth.
Analyst Insights: Is the Rally Still Alive?
One of the most compelling voices in recent discussions is Colin Talks Crypto, a well-known market analyst who emphasizes historical patterns and macro correlations. According to his latest assessment, Bitcoin is currently in a short-term rally, with its peak likely forming in mid-to-late March 2025.
He notes:
“It looks to me like BTC has at least three more days until the end of that mini rally. The M2 Global supply with a 107-day offset seems to fit best currently. Blast off date estimated around April 30.”
This projection hinges on the strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price movements and global liquidity, particularly measured through M2 money supply data. Historically, BTC tends to accelerate approximately 70 to 107 days after major liquidity infusions—such as central bank balance sheet expansions or fiscal stimulus programs.
Two bullish scenarios are now in play:
- Scenario 1 (70-day offset): A strong upward move expected around March 2–5.
- Scenario 2 (107-day offset): A more explosive "blow-off top" phase projected for April 30 to early May.
Given current trends, Scenario 2 appears increasingly aligned with market behavior, suggesting that the most powerful leg of the bull run may still lie ahead.
The Role of Global Liquidity in Crypto Markets
Why does M2 money supply matter so much for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin operates as a global, decentralized asset often viewed as a hedge against inflation and monetary expansion. When central banks increase liquidity—through quantitative easing, rate cuts, or deficit spending—that excess capital often flows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
In early 2025, signs point to rising global liquidity:
- The Federal Reserve signaled potential rate cuts later in the year.
- European and Asian central banks have maintained accommodative policies.
- Government spending remains elevated in several major economies.
These factors collectively create fertile ground for another surge in digital asset valuations. With a typical lag of about 107 days, late April through early May emerges as a high-probability window for renewed momentum—potentially marking the true acceleration phase of the bull market.
Market Recovery Signs and Investor Sentiment
Despite earlier losses exceeding $1 trillion in market capitalization over two months, the crypto market has shown resilience. Bitcoin rebounded nearly **9% from its monthly low**, stabilizing around $84,100. The total crypto market cap has recovered to $2.76 trillion, signaling renewed confidence.
Several catalysts contributed to this turnaround:
- Broader financial markets stabilized, including equities.
- Regulatory clarity improved—particularly with the SEC proposing to classify XRP as a payment asset rather than a security, easing long-standing legal concerns.
- Institutional activity remained robust, with spot Bitcoin ETFs continuing to see net inflows.
Additionally, prominent analyst Josh Mandel reignited optimism with a bold prediction: **Bitcoin could reach $440,000** in this cycle, using $84,000 as a foundational base level.
While such forecasts should be taken with caution, they reflect growing conviction that current prices represent a consolidation zone—not an exhaustion point.
👉 See how expert predictions align with on-chain data and macro trends shaping Bitcoin’s next move.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: Is the Bitcoin bull run really over?
A: No. Analysts agree the bull run is far from finished. Current price action suggests a temporary consolidation before another major upward leg, likely in late April or early May.
Q: Why did Bitcoin drop from $109k to $84k?
A: The correction was driven by profit-taking after the all-time high, combined with short-term macroeconomic uncertainty and bearish investor sentiment. Such pullbacks are normal during strong bull markets.
Q: What is driving the next expected surge in Bitcoin?
A: The primary driver is anticipated growth in global liquidity (M2), which historically correlates with Bitcoin price increases. A 107-day lag from recent monetary trends points to a potential breakout around April 30.
Q: Can Bitcoin really hit $440,000?
A: While speculative, some analysts like Josh Mandel believe it's possible if macro conditions remain favorable and institutional adoption continues to grow. Such targets depend on sustained momentum post-consolidation.
Q: Should I sell or hold during this phase?
A: Most analysts recommend holding through consolidation phases in strong bull markets. Timing exits is difficult; long-term investors are better served by focusing on macro signals and on-chain fundamentals.
Final Outlook: Bull Run Still in Motion
While short-term volatility persists, the overarching narrative remains bullish. The current phase appears to be a consolidation within an ongoing bull cycle, not its conclusion. Historical patterns, liquidity trends, and expert analysis all converge on one idea: the most explosive part of the rally may still be ahead.
With global monetary conditions poised to become more accommodative and regulatory clarity improving, conditions are aligning for another surge—potentially peaking between April 30 and early May 2025.
For investors, this means staying informed, monitoring M2 trends and on-chain metrics, and avoiding emotional reactions to short-term swings. The path forward may be volatile, but the structural supports for higher prices remain firmly in place.
👉 Stay ahead of the next market surge with real-time data and strategic insights from top analysts.
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