The cryptocurrency market has entered a critical phase after a prolonged correction. As of late June, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown strong signs of bottoming out, sparking renewed interest among traders and long-term investors alike. With significant price rebounds and key technical levels being tested, many are asking: Is this the ideal time to start building positions? This analysis dives deep into current market dynamics, support and resistance zones, and strategic entry points—helping you navigate the volatility with confidence.
Market Structure: Signs of a Potential Bottom
Bitcoin’s Technical Landscape
Bitcoin recently closed with a long lower wick on the daily chart, indicating strong buying pressure at lower levels. This candlestick pattern often signals exhaustion among sellers and increased demand from buyers—a classic hallmark of potential reversal zones.
While no definitive bottom has been confirmed yet, the price has reached a historically strong support area. The RSI hasn’t shown bullish divergence just yet, and MACD remains in negative territory without clear signs of decelerating bearish momentum (as of the latest close). Therefore, while optimism is growing, blindly chasing the rally is not advised.
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Ethereum’s Strong Rebound
Ethereum has delivered one of the most impressive rebounds in recent days, surging from a low of $2,110 to over $2,260—an 8%+ move within a short timeframe. This sharp recovery suggests that institutional and retail buyers are stepping in at attractive valuations.
Earlier warnings against premature bottom fishing proved accurate as ETH dropped nearly 500 points from $2,680. However, those who waited for confluence at $2,113 executed near-perfect entries with risk-controlled setups yielding favorable risk-reward ratios (up to 1:10).
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Understanding where major supply and demand zones lie is essential for strategic positioning.
Bitcoin: Critical Levels to Watch
Resistance at $103,500
This level aligns with multiple technical factors:- End of Wave 1 in the current structure
- 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level
- Previous support turned resistance (support-resistance flip)
A retest here could offer a tactical short opportunity or profit-taking zone for early longs.
- Support at $97,500–$97,300
This range marks a potential “fake breakdown” zone in the fifth wave decline. It also corresponds with intraday structure on the 15-minute chart (1.13 extension). Traders may consider initiating partial long positions here with tight stop-losses (a few hundred pips below entry). - Ultimate Safety Net: Daily Tunnel Line
If this key trendline is breached, it would invalidate the current bullish hypothesis. Any position should be exited immediately if price closes below this level.
Ethereum: Strategic Entry Zones
- Primary Support at $2,071
Based on Elliott Wave theory, this level represents the projected end of the fifth and final leg of the downward impulse. A bounce here with volume confirmation could mark the start of a new bullish phase. - Secondary Zone: $1,950–$1,960
Should the $2,071 level fail, this deeper zone offers an excellent opportunity for long-term spot accumulation. It aligns with historical demand areas and represents strong value for investors eyeing 2025’s potential bull run.
Shift in Market Sentiment: From Bearish to Opportunistic
We are likely transitioning from a fear-driven sell-off to a phase of accumulation. Here’s what’s changed:
✅ From Shorting to Buying Mindset
After weeks of relentless downside pressure, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached levels where downside momentum is weakening. The appearance of large bullish candles and shrinking volatility suggest that the market is digesting losses, and smart money may be quietly accumulating.
✅ Left-Side Entry Strategy Gains Relevance
With no confirmed reversal signals yet, traditional "wait-for-the-green-candle" traders might miss early moves. A left-side trading approach—entering before confirmation but with strict risk control—can capture outsized gains if the bottom holds.
This doesn't mean reckless buying. Instead, it means:
- Scaling into positions gradually
- Using tight, predefined stop-losses
- Prioritizing high-confluence zones like $97,300 (BTC) or $2,071 (ETH)
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Actionable Trading Strategies
Bitcoin: Dual-Approach Plan
1. Fade the Rally at Resistance
- Target Entry: Near $103,500
- Logic: Confluence of wave structure, Fib level, and flipped support
- Risk Management: Stop above recent swing high; aim for partial profit at $101,000
2. Build Long Exposure at Support
- Target Zone: $97,500–$97,300
- Stop-Loss: A few hundred points below (e.g., $96,800)
- Exit Plan: Hold as long as daily tunnel line remains intact; take profits incrementally on strength
Ethereum: Focus on Wave Completion
1. Wave-Based Bottom Play at $2,071
- Entry: On bounce confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing or RSI reversal)
- Stop-Loss: Just below $2,050
- Target: $2,250+, then $2,400 depending on broader market tone
2. Spot Accumulation Below $1,960
- Ideal for holders targeting multi-year highs by 2025
- Allocate only capital you can afford to lock up for 12+ months
- Consider DCA if price drifts lower
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: How do I know if this is a real bottom or just a bear market rally?
A: No single indicator confirms a bottom. Look for confluence: strong support zones, rising volume on up days, shrinking volatility, and sentiment extremes. While we’re seeing promising signs, always use stop-losses until trend reversal is confirmed.
Q: Should I go all-in now that prices have dropped?
A: Avoid emotional decisions. Use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) or scale in gradually. Even if this is the bottom, preserving capital matters more than perfect timing.
Q: What’s the significance of the “daily tunnel line” mentioned for Bitcoin?
A: It's a dynamic support derived from moving averages or Bollinger Band-like envelopes. A sustained break below it suggests bears still control the market—making it a vital risk management benchmark.
Q: Why trust wave theory for Ethereum’s $2,071 target?
A: Elliott Wave principles work best in liquid markets with clear impulse moves. The prior five-wave decline fits textbook structure, increasing confidence in the projected end point.
Q: Is spot buying safer than futures right now?
A: Yes—for most investors. Spot avoids liquidation risk and suits long-term holders. Use futures only if experienced and with strict position sizing.
Q: When should I take profits if my trades work out?
A: Set tiered targets (e.g., 50% at +15%, rest at +30%+). Let winners run but don’t turn profits into losses by holding too long.
Final Thoughts: Prepare for What Comes Next
While we can't say with certainty that the absolute low has been printed, the risk-reward profile is becoming increasingly favorable. The largest反弹 since the downturn began reflects growing buyer conviction.
Rather than waiting for perfect clarity—which often comes too late—smart traders position now with discipline. Whether you're focused on Bitcoin’s $97K zone or Ethereum’s wave-based targets, this stage offers rare opportunities to build exposure before potential explosive moves in late 2025.
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The golden pit may indeed be forming. Are you ready to act?